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Decision Theory


Decision Theory

Word count 3217


  • Harnessing the power group

-Delphi Method

-Open space technology

  • Big Data

-Existing or potential application of Big Data

-Customer insights

-Cost and benefits of Big Data

  • Applying decision trees to business problems

-Usefulness of the decision tree to improve decision making process

Additional information

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1.0 Harnessing the power group
1.1 Delphi method
1.2 Open space technology
2.0 Big data
2.1 Application of big data
2.2 Customer insights
2.3 Cost benefit analysis of big data
3.0 Decision trees
3.1 Effectiveness of decision trees to improve the decision making process


Executive Summary

In this complex corporate world, decision analysis method play a major role by supporting decision makers to deeply understand the issue. This report is comprehensively evaluate few decision analysis methods such as Delphi Method, open space technique, big data and decision trees. This report has been taken subsidiaries of Hemas Holdings which is one of leading conglomerate of Sri Lanka to analysis the practical scenarios of the selected decision analysis methods. This report is separately discussed the capabilities of each decision analysis methods. Further this report is recommended how each decision analysis method need to be improved within the organization.

1.0 Harnessing the power group

1.1 Delphi Method

Collective decision making is a very common and practical approach in corporate world now a days. Hodwever unstructured group discussion could be led to bias decision making due to powerful individuals can influence more, talkative members can dominate the discussion and seating arrangement also could affect the engagement of the individuals to the discussion. The Delphi Method is widely used structured group process which eliminate above mentioned issues. The method is designed as a group discussion process that aims to achieve a collective solution for corporate world issues (Hsu, 2007).
As a FMCG Company, Hemas Manufacturing launch new products frequently. Recently Hemas launch new product range under “Diva” brand. Delhi method is good technique to predict the sales level of new product range during next 12 months. Facilitator play key role in Delphi technique therefore Managing Director of Hemas Manufacturing is chosen to coordinate the session as a facilitator. Facilitator’s role is coordinate the session without any bias and facilitate the responses of their panel of experts (Diasz, 2017). On the other hand Delphi method depend on panel of expertise. It is important to participate 5 to 20 members to have more effective session. The larger the shared pool, the smarter the decision (Patterson, Grenny, McMillan and Switzler, 2002). In Hemas, 15 expertise participate to the session including brand manager, marketing manager, regional sales managers, management accountant and finance manager. Group is usually selected based on specific knowledge that participant have.