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Decision Analysis – The Conroy Manufacturing Company


Decision Analysis – The Conroy Manufacturing Company

Word count 3268


Executive summary

The Conroy Manufacturing is a company that works in many different sectors in in Australia. And the objective of this report is to analysis project of lunching new gardening tools and equipment of the company. In this project, there need to be taken different critical decisions mainly about continuity of the project and suitable location for the production. Decision analysis methods such as decision tree, NPV, Expected value and probabilities have been used to this study to make more accurate and reliable decisions. SMART technique which mainly consider qualitative aspect of the scenario is used as alternative option to discuss this situation. And also strength and limitation of these technique and recommended course of actions have been discussed in this study. This report recommend to continue the project according to current situation and suitable location is depended according to different scenarios. Detail results of the study and recommendations have been discussed comprehensively in the body of the report.


The Conroy Manufacturing Company is a business in Australia which has range of products such as industrial materials, building materials, paints and consumer goods. Once consider the last five year revenue level of these product groups, it is indicated that sales of industry materials and paints have been reduced and the sales of building materials and consumer goods have need slightly increased. However amount of sales is still small in Convoy manufacturing company due to other established competitors. Therefore company has decided to introduce new gardening tools and equipment too. Market research is also conducted by the company considering customers’ decision making behaviors.
The Conroy manufacturing company has to make critical decisions regarding the new product launch. First decision that need to make by the company is whether this products launch continue or not. If the management decide to carry on the project and then the company need to design the prototype for the products. According to this scenario, if company can successfully develop prototype at December 2018, then the company need to select the production location. There are two available locations for production and company need to consider many factors before decide the location. However there is 25% chance which couldn’t develop prototype as planed at December 2018. If so, management need to decide whether modify the prototype using extra cost
or another one year or abandon the project. Again if modification will be succeed, management has to select the production location of LM18. Develop the prototype in 2018 is highly critical to overall decision making process since market condition will be changed according to time that product launch. Therefore these condition also need to be considered before make the decisions.
Decision trees are the most suitable decision analysis technique for this kind of multiple stage problems. Additionally methods such as NPV and expected value also have been used to this study.